The NBA play-in tournament is fast approaching, and we’ve got two teams still fighting to seal their fate in the postseason going head-to-head tonight as the Indiana Pacers (39-31) travel to the West Coast to take on the Golden State Warriors (36-32) at Chase Center, San Francisco.
Currently occupying sixth-place in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers are just a half game ahead of the seventh-seeded Miami Heat. As for the Warriors, they currently make up the final play-in spot in the West, but are just 2.5 games ahead of the Houston Rockets, and are four games off a playoff place. Tip-off is set for 10:00 p.m. ET tonight.
You can find our best bet for tonight’s interconference battle coming up! The hosts are currently considered 5-point favorites according to Bet Rivers, whilst the game total is set at O/U 240 (-110).
Last Time Out
Wednesday night, unsurprisingly, saw the Pacers secure a 122-103 road win against the 12-57 Detroit Pistons. A game-high 25 points from Pascal Siakam ensured the victory, whilst a double-double from Isaiah Jackson off the bench (10 points and 11 rebounds) helped tie up an easy triumph.
Much tougher opponents are up next for Indiana who have been incredibly inconsistent all season. That’s proven by the fact that the Pacers are 5-5 over their last 10 games, but they have won their last four straight road games which will give them the hope of extending that to five in their trip to California tonight.
Inconsistency appears to be the theme for both franchises participating in tonight's matchup. So too are the Warriors 5-5 over their last 10 games, however, they also won in their last game, making light work of the 23-47 Memphis Grizzlies with a 137-116 win.
Jonathan Kuminga led the scoring charts for the Warriors on Wednesday, putting up 26 points. Nevertheless, superb supporting roles by Andrew Wiggins, Chris Paul and Draymond Green saw them all have double-doubles each.
Injuries & Team News
Guard Bennedict Mathurin is out for the season for Indiana since he is expected to undergo shoulder surgery. Obi Toppin is questionable due to an ankle sprain, but they should have all of their starters healthy. Nevertheless, their depth has been limited, especially since Mathurin is averaging 14.5 points off the bench this season.
The hosts are expected to be at almost full health for the matchup. Green continues to manage back soreness, but is considered probable for the game here. Guard Moses Moody is questionable due to a knee problem.
Head-to-Head
Golden State comfortably beat Indiana in their only other meeting this season. They ran out 131-109 victors at Gainbridge FieldHouse back in February, with Stephen Curry leading the Warriors to the win with a 42-point game. The last time the two teams met at Chase Center was December 2022 when the Pacers secured a 112-102 triumph. The Warriors are just 1-5 ATS over their last six home clashes with Indiana.
Betting Trends & Stats
It won’t be too much of a shock to see the game total set so high tonight as the Pacers average the most points per game (ppg) across the league (122.8). The Warriors have performed strongly on offense too, averaging 118.6 ppg on the season (seventh in the NBA).
Equally, both teams have some work to do on defense. Golden State have given up the 11th-most ppg (116.8), whilst the Pacers are allowing the third-most ppg in the league (120.7). However, there has been an improvement of late for Indiana as they have given up 110.8 ppg over their past five outings.
The home side easily covered the 11.5-point spread against the Grizzlies last time out, but they haven’t performed well against the spread (ATS) at home in general, covering in just 42.9% of games with a 0.7 point differential. They have struggled even further to cover when listed as home favorites, and have a record of just 11-18-0 ATS.
The ATS stats bode pretty well for the Pacers ahead of the game as they have the ninth-best road record (18-14-1). They have covered in 55% of matchups as road underdogs too, whilst they are 20-13-2 ATS as overall dogs with a -2.8 point differential.
Key Players
San Francisco are 2-1 since Curry’s return to the court following injury, and he should be well rested after playing just 24 minutes against Memphis. He still shot 55.56% from the field as well, sinking four of his seven three-point attempts. That means he has now reached 300 three-pointers on the season, making it the fifth time in his career at doing so - an NBA record.
All-Star Tyrese Haliburton shot nine of 13 field goal attempts on his way to putting up 20 points in just 26 minutes for the Pacers against Detroit in his last match. He also leads the NBA in assists per game (11.2). That was a much better display than what he has been accustomed to of late, though, as Haliburton is averaging just 16.6 ppg over his last five.
It is Siakam who has now become Indiana's leading points scorer, averaging 20.7 ppg on the season. He has recorded three double-doubles over his last five games too. If Haliburton continues to struggle, it is the Pacers’ depth that will be needed.
Best Bet
The Pacers have kept things close as the underdogs, even when they aren’t winning. They have also been solid on the road this season, boasting an 18-16 record, whilst the Warriors have underwhelmed on their own court, going 18-18.
Even if Golden State’s veterans can lead them to glory here, we’re backing Indiana to keep the scores close, as they have done for the bulk of the campaign. Therefore, our recommendation is to take the points tonight.
Indiana Pacers +5 (-112 with Bet Rivers)
