The NBA playoffs are in full swing, and tonight it’s game two between the Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) and the Denver Nuggets (57-25). Reigning champions the Nuggets currently lead the series 1-0 after beating the Lakers 114-103 on Saturday.
After picking up the first win of the series at Ball Arena, Denver over the weekend, the Nuggets will maintain their home-court advantage tonight before heading to Crypto.com Arena for game three. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET tonight.
Searching for their sixth win in seven games, Denver are currently listed as 7.5-point favorites with Bet Rivers (-112), and are very heavy favorites on the moneyline (-305). The game total is set at O/U 223. Below you can find our game analysis and best bet!
Last Time Out
It’s advantage Denver after game one of the Lakers-Nuggets first-round series, and the current NBA champs will feel confident about advancing into the Western Conference semifinals. That’s because two-time MVP Nikola Jokic was able to help guide the Nuggets to a pretty comfortable 11-point victory last Saturday, putting up 32 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists.
Double-doubles from Jamal Murray (22 points, 10 assists) and Aaron Gordon (12 points, 11 rebounds) also aided Denver in their triumph, ensuring they picked up their second successive win in the NBA. The Nuggets have entered the postseason with good momentum, losing just two of their last nine.
As for Los Angeles, they went on a strong run to end the regular season, winning 11 of their final 14. Still, they had to defeat the New Orleans Pelicans during the play-in tournament in order to earn the 7-seed in the West. A 110-106 win secured their ticket into the playoffs, but an injury to Pelicans forward Zion Williamson in the fourth quarter greatly aided their cause.
Certainly, the Lakers seemed to be a level below the Nuggets in game one. Despite Anthony Davis putting up an impressive double-double (32 points, 14 rebounds), and veteran LeBron James scoring 27 points, shooting 10 of 16 from the field, LA’s supporting staff didn’t have enough in the tank to help conquer the Nuggets.
Injuries & Team News
Tonight’s visitors have had to deal with injury issues throughout the regular season and that will continue here. Christian Wood (knee), Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) and Cam Reddish (ankle) will all remain sidelined, whilst LeBron (ankle) and Davis (back) have been included on the injury report as well. However, the Lakers’ star players are both probable to play.
Vlatko Cancar is still out for the Nuggets due to a knee issue and he isn’t expected to return at all during the playoffs. Guard Collin Gillespie (knee) will also miss out, but Denver should be pretty healthy for game two.
Head-to-Head
The hosts had LA’s number all throughout the regular season, completing a series sweep of 3-0. Denver sealed a 119-107 victory in their first meeting at Ball Arena last October, before earning back-to-back road triumphs in February and March.
Having struggled to keep things close thus far, the Lakers’ smallest loss against Denver this season was by eight points in a 114-106 defeat at Crypto.com Arena back in February. The Nuggets have also secured nine straight victories over LA, and comfortably dispatched them 4-0 in last year’s Western Conference finals.
Betting Trends & Stats
The road team excelled on offense during the regular season, averaging the sixth-highest points per game (ppg) across the league (118.0). That saw them record the second-best field goal efficiency (49.9%) and the eighth-best three-point efficiency (37.7%). However, it was their defense that let them down, allowing the eighth-most ppg across the league (117.4), also having the sixth-worst three-point defense (37.6%).
LA will have to try and replicate their strong offense against a Nuggets team that performed well on defense. Denver allowed the sixth-lowest ppg in the NBA throughout the regular season (109.6), whilst they ranked inside the top ten in both field goal and three-point defense. The Nuggets will look to capitalize on the Lakers’ poor defense outside the arc as they had the 10th-best three-point efficiency in the league (37.4%).
With an against the spread (ATS) record of just 40-45-0, the Lakers were not the best at covering during the regular season. They performed slightly worse ATS on the road (19-23-0), but did go 14-12-0 ATS when listed as road underdogs. Darvin Ham’s team have covered the spread in just two of their last five outings, and two of their last five on the road.
Meanwhile, Denver also struggled to cover the spread during the regular season, going 39-42-2 ATS overall. However, they were better ATS on their own court, going 22-19-1 for which they were listed as favorites for every matchup. Denver went 33-8 at home during the regular season straight up. Their 9.9 point differential as home favorites was the seventh-best across the NBA, and they have covered the spread in four of their last five games, and four of their last five at Ball Arena.
Key Players
Davis’ ability to make rebounds will play a big role in how this one plays out, but despite recording 14 in game one, the Lakers still succumbed to defeat. That’s because Jokic is just too good off the glass, and the Nuggets outboarded LA 49-40 overall.
LeBron will need to have another high-scoring game, but the first clash showed that the likes of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will need much-improved displays if the Lakers are to pull the series back to 1-1. They both put up just 13 points each last Saturday.
Jokic was magnificent last time out, shooting 15 of 23 from the field en route to a 32-point game. If Murray can have another strong showing from beyond the arc for the hosts, shooting four of nine in game one, then it is likely that LA will struggle to win again. The defensive rebounds from Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. will also be significant.
Best Bet
The Nuggets were vastly superior at shooting threes in game one, and Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s ability to make those shots will likely make the difference in this one again. Equally, LA struggled with turnovers last time out, with LeBron having seven on his own.
The nine-game winning streak for the Nuggets over LA speaks volumes and they simply have the better of them. That trend will continue in tonight’s matchup, especially due to Denver’s excellent record at home this season, and so we are backing them to cover the 7.5-point spread.
Denver Nuggets -7.5 (-112 with Bet Rivers)
