Thursday’s NBA action continues with seven games on the slate and we will be previewing an interconference battle between the Miami Heat (35-26) and the Dallas Mavericks (34-28).
The Eastern Conference’s sixth seed will make the trip to American Airlines Center, Dallas tonight to take on the Western Conference’s eighth seed. The game will get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Heat enter the primetime clash having won seven of their last eight, and are looking set for the playoffs. As for the hosts, they are looking for a return to form as they have lost five of their last six. The road team are listed as 5-point underdogs with Points Bet and the game total is set at O/U 230.5.
Last Time Out
After picking up back-to-back wins against the Utah Jazz (126-120) and the Detroit Pistons (118-110), Miami has now established themselves inside the playoff spots for now. They’ve been on a superb stretch of late, winning 11 of their 14 games since the start of February. Erik Spoelstra’s team have won six of their last seven on the road as well.
The Heat have been heating up at just the right time, and they currently boast the second-best record over their last ten in the NBA (8-2). Star forward Jimmy Butler has been aiding that cause, averaging 25.8 points per game (ppg) over his last five.
The Mavericks looked set for a big charge towards the postseason following the trade deadline after they won seven in a row. However, since the return from the All-Star Break, they are just 2-5, losing their last three straight. They have also lost their last two back-to-back at home.
All three games played in March have resulted in losses for Dallas, suffering defeats against the Boston Celtics (138-110), the Philadelphia 76ers (120-116) and, most recently, the Indiana Pacers (137-120). Clearly, they need some improvements on defense.
Injuries & Team News
Guard Tyler Herro is the primary casualty for the visitors ahead of the matchup as he will miss out due to a knee injury. He has missed the last five consecutive games for Miami, but they are still 4-1 in that time. Bench options Kevin Love and Josh Richardson are also sidelined.
Dallas should be close to a clean bill of health ahead of the game here. Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber are both on the injury report, but are listed as probable.
Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting between the two teams this season. The last time they met was back in April 2023 with the Heat running out 129-122 winners in Florida. The Mavericks won 115-90 the last time they hosted Miami last January.
Betting Trends & Stats
Ranking 27th in ppg this season (110.8), the Heat have not been the most fruitful on offense. However, they have excelled defensively, giving up the sixth-least ppg in the league (109.9). They have allowed just 107.8 ppg over their last five as well.
It has been the polar opposite for Dallas who have had no issues putting up points throughout the campaign. They have averaged the sixth-most ppg in the NBA (118.7), but have allowed the seventh-most ppg (118.3). That is one of the main reasons why they haven’t been winning games of late as they have given up a mammoth 128.2 ppg over their past five outings.
Heading into games as the underdogs has suited Miami down to the ground of late, as four of their seven wins over their latest eight-game stretch saw them start as the underdogs. They have covered in 50% of their total matchups this season, but they are 18-12-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road. Miami has covered 65% of the time as road underdogs (fourth-highest in the league).
The Mavericks have been solid ATS this season with a record of 32-30-0. However, they have struggled to cover on their own court, going 14-19-0 ATS, covering in just 42.9% as home favorites. Nevertheless, they are 21-15-0 ATS as overall favorites.
Key Players
Six-time All-Star Butler has been key in Miami’s recent run of form, and he has put up at least 20 points over his last five games. Herro (20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists) will be a loss, but the Heat have plenty of scoring options in Bam Adebayo, Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson.
Doncic’s triple-double and game-high 39 points wasn’t enough to pick up the victory against the Pacers last time out for Dallas. The Slovenian has been in truly magnificent form of late, scoring at least 30 points in seven successive games. Kyrie Irving has been pretty hot too, averaging 25.8 ppg over his last five, but the Mavs have still failed to find wins.
Best Bet
In spite of how prolific Doncic and Irving have been recently, the Dallas defense has been atrocious, and is the reason why they aren’t picking up wins. That means the likes of Butler and Adebayo are set to put up plenty of points tonight.
Miami has the defense to contain the Mavs’ elite offense, and they have all the confidence and momentum too. With the Heat listed as the underdogs for this one, we’re taking the points.
Miami Heat +5 (-110 with Points Bet)
