Last night marked the return of the NBA following the All-Star Break and we’ve got another ten matchups to sink our teeth into tonight! Coming up in today’s pick, we will be taking a look at the interconference clash between the Milwaukee Bucks (35-21) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (39-16).
The Bucks head to Target Center, Minneapolis tonight as they look to break a three-game losing streak on the road. Meanwhile, the home team is searching for their fifth consecutive victory to maintain their lead atop the Western Conference standings. The game is set to get underway at 10:00 p.m. ET.
The streaking Timberwolves are 4-point favorites with Points Bet tonight (-110), and are -180 on the moneyline. The game total is set at O/U 225.5. The two teams will be battling it out in their first game since the All-Star Break, and we’ve got our best bet for you below!
Last Time Out
Doc Rivers has failed to improve the Milwaukee Bucks since he took over, and they are 3-7 following his arrival. If anything, they’ve regressed. They enter this matchup on the back of successive defeats as well, suffering 123-97 and 113-110 losses to the Miami Heat and the Memphis Grizzlies before the break.
The Bucks are 2-5 over their last seven and are struggling to get back to their best under Rivers. Their defeat on the road to the injury-ravaged, 20-36 Grizzlies last Thursday epitomizes their recent woes. Milwaukee are 12-14 on the road this season, and it will be incredibly difficult against an in-form Wolves here.
With that being said, the Wolves picked up some fantastic momentum before the break, going 7-3 over their last ten. That includes a four-game winning streak where they have put up a minimum of 120 points in each matchup.
Minnesota recorded back-to-back blowout wins on the road to the Portland Trail Blazers in their two most recent games. Their last matchup saw them win 128-91 with All-Star guard Anthony Edwards putting up a game-high 34 points. The Wolves have performed well this season on their own court, too, boasting a record of 19-5.
Injuries & Team News
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pat Connaughton are both dealing with knee tendonitis issues for the visitors, but both are listed as probable to play. However, forward Khris Middleton has been ruled out due to an ankle sprain. The Bucks will miss the valuable scoring option of Middleton since he averages 14.8 points per game (ppg) this season.
The Timberwolves will have Wendell Moore Jr., Leonard Miller and Jaylen Clark on the sidelines for this one. However, they are not expected to be dealing with any issues to their starters so are healthy entering the matchup.
Head-to-Head
One of Rivers’ seven defeats as Bucks coach came against the Wolves in a 129-105 home loss earlier this month. Milwaukee struggled to contain Edwards who put up 26 points. That ended a two-game losing streak for Minnesota against the Bucks.
This will be the first and only clash at Target Center between the two teams this season. It was the Bucks who won when they last played in Minneapolis, picking up a 115-102 triumph in November, 2022.
Betting Trends & Stats
Despite the road team averaging the second-most ppg across the NBA this season (122.0), their offense under Rivers is averaging only 111.0 points. The Wolves have been below average on offense with 114.0 ppg (ranked 20th), but they have put up an improved 117.9 points over their last ten.
The Timberwolves’ strengths are also primarily on defense as they have allowed the least ppg this season across the league (106.7). As for the Bucks, they rank down in 23rd, giving up 118.8 ppg. They have improved to allowing just 113.0 ppg under Rivers, nevertheless.
Milwaukee have performed terribly against the spread (ATS) so far and have the second-worst record in the NBA (21-34-1). That means they have covered in just 38.2% of games this season. Conversely, Minnesota have performed well ATS, and have the sixth-best record in the league (29-24-2).
The Wolves have covered better at home as well, with an ATS record of 13-9-2, and have a point differential of 10.0. The Bucks have covered even less on the road and have an ATS record of 9-17-0 (34.6%). They are also 1-5-0 ATS as underdogs with a -16.0 point differential.
Key Players
Averaging the third-most ppg in the NBA this season (30.8), two-time MVP Antetokounmpo is the key player for the Bucks. However, he is averaging just 25.2 ppg over his last five, despite putting up over 30 points in two of his last three for Milwaukee.
Giannis also leads the team in average rebounds (11.2) and steals (1.4). He has 43 double-doubles and seven triple-doubles on the season as well. Guard Damian Lillard will be an important piece too. He is averaging 24.6 ppg this season and leads the team in average assists (6.4).
Edwards is the star man on offense for the Wolves with his 26.3 ppg, and he also leads the team in assists (1.2). However, Karl-Anthony Towns (22.5 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists) will be another crucial scoring option.
Center Rudy Gobert is a significant defensive piece on the Wolves’ roster. His average of 12.5 rebounds is the second-highest in the NBA, whilst he also ranks inside the top 10 in terms of blocks (2.1).
Best Bet
It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Timberwolves listed as just 4-point favorites against the sliding Bucks. Minnesota is in top form of late, and all the stats are suggesting they should easily cover tonight.
With the spread set at such a low figure, we can’t pass up the value on backing the Wolves to cover. Milwaukee is yet to get going under Rivers and it will be another difficult night on the road here.
Minnesota Timberwolves -4 (-110 with Points Bet)
