There’s 12 games back on the NBA schedule tonight as the action returns following the All-Star Break. We will be analyzing an enticing Western Conference battle between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks.
Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET tonight from American Airlines Center, Dallas. BetMGM have the home side listed as 1.5-point favorites and -120 on the moneyline. The game total is currently set at O/U 245.5 so it could be an entertaining affair here.
The Mavericks are just one game back behind the Suns and are currently on a six-game winning streak. Frank Vogel’s team are also on a good streak, winning five of their last six. We should be in for an enthralling matchup and we are providing you with our best bet for the game below!
Last Time Out
The Suns are in great shape as they travel to Texas on Thursday. They have won seven of their last 10, including back-to-back wins over the Sacramento Kings (130-125) and the Detroit Pistons (116-100) before the break.
However, Phoenix have lost two of their last three road games, and narrowly lost 113-112 to the Golden State Warriors in their most recent away matchup. Still, Kevin Durant has been in top form of late, averaging 27.2 points per game (ppg) over his last five outings.
Deadline trades for the Mavs coincided with their hot streak prior to the All-Star Break. After adding both P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford on February 8, Dallas are 3-0, picking up comfortable victories over the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Washington Wizards and the San Antonio Spurs.
It’s been a full week since the Mavericks last played, and they beat the Spurs 116-93 last time out to move to 32-23 on the season, occupying seventh-place in the Western Conference standings. Adding the extra depth has also benefited All-Star Luka Doncic - Dallas’ only player present in Indianapolis over the weekend.
Injuries & Team News
Bradley Beal is expected to be the only major concern for the road team tonight. He is questionable due to a hamstring issue. Damion Lee is ruled out due to a knee problem.
With Doncic the only player from Dallas to play in the All-Star game, the Mavericks should be well-rested ahead of the matchup. The Slovenian recently suffered a broken nose, but is listed as probable, alongside Dereck Lively and Maxi Kleber. Dante Exum remains sidelined.
Head-to-Head
The season series sits at 1-1 with both teams winning on the road in the two games played earlier on during the campaign. The Suns recorded a blowout triumph in their last trip to American Airlines Center, winning 132-109 last month.
However, Dallas managed to defeat Phoenix 128-114 in Arizona over the festive period. Doncic had a double-double in that clash, putting up 50 points and 15 assists. The All-Star also recorded 34 points in the loss at the end of January.
Betting Trends & Stats
Phoenix have been above average on offense this season and average the 12th-most ppg across the league (117.6). The Mavericks trump that with 118.7 ppg, however, which is the seventh-most in the NBA.
Both the Suns and Dallas measure up similarly on defense, too, with the former giving up 114.3 ppg (15th), and the latter allowing 117.2 ppg (19th). However, Phoenix have the third-best field goal percentage in the league (49.9%), whilst the Mavs have allowed a 48% field goal efficiency (11th-most).
It’s the home team that has the upper hand when it comes to against the spread (ATS) statistics. They currently have the 14th-best ATS record in the NBA (29-26-0), whilst the Suns have struggled to cover this season (23-30-2).
Dallas have covered in 61.3% of games when they have been the favorites as well, with a point differential of 6.8. Phoenix are just 6-7-0 ATS as the underdogs, but they have covered in 55.56% of matchups when they are road underdogs.
Key Players
Durant and Kevin Booker will be the star players for the Suns tonight. KD is the fifth-highest points scorer in the NBA this season (28.2), whilst Booker is narrowly behind in eighth (27.5). Both played in the All-Star game for the West.
The obvious key man for the hosts is Doncic who leads the league in ppg (34.2), excluding Joel Embiid. He also leads the team in rebounds (8.8), assists (9.5) and steals (1.4). With a healthy Kyrie Irving (25.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists), the Mavericks have plenty of scoring options.
Gafford and Washington will also make life difficult for the Suns, with the former adding some much-needed defensive help for Dallas. He averages 12.0 rebounds on the season.
Best Bet
The Mavericks are narrow favorites for tonight, but we are expecting them to carry on in their hot streak, especially with home advantage. Doncic has excelled against the Suns already this season, and Dallas has better depth than Phoenix.
We’re expecting a close game at American Airlines Center, and the Suns have more than enough talent to pick up the win. However, with Beal questionable, we’re edging towards the home team to cover the spread.
Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-110 with BetMGM)
