We’ve got a busy NBA schedule tonight with as many as 13 games set to take place on Wednesday. Below we’re focusing on a Western Conference battle between the Sacramento Kings (30-23) and the Denver Nuggets (36-18).
Viewers can watch the action from Ball Arena, Denver at 9:00 p.m. ET tonight. The hosts are currently 4.5-point favorites with BetMGM (-115) and the game total is set at O/U 229.5. The Kings are the underdogs here and are priced at +155 on the moneyline.
Sacramento will be looking to emulate their blowout win over the Nuggets last week as they recorded a 135-106 triumph at Golden 1 Center. Meanwhile, Denver will be desperate to avoid a third consecutive loss in this one. Let’s get into our game analysis and find a winner with our best bet!
Last Time Out
Despite picking up an impressive 135-106 win over the current NBA champions last Friday, that has been the only victory for the Kings over their last five games. They have faced some tricky opposition in the Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder and, most recently, the Phoenix Suns, but they will be extremely disappointed with their 133-120 loss at home to the 8-45 Detroit Pistons last Wednesday.
Sacramento will be playing without a rest day here as they lost 130-125 on the road to the Suns last night. Although they led at half time, Phoenix rallied in the final two quarters, with the Kings failing to contain both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. However, guard De’Aaron Fox put up a game-high 40 points, and forward Domantas Sabonis impressed with a triple-double for the visitors.
The Nuggets haven’t exactly been in the best shape themselves of late, and have lost three of their last six games. That includes back-to-back defeats against the Kings and on the road to the Milwaukee Bucks (112-95) on Monday. There’ll certainly be some concerns over the offensive display in Wisconsin.
The positive news for Denver, however, is that they will have a rest advantage over their opponents tonight. They’ll also welcome a return home to Ball Arena for the first time in over a week. They have won their last seven straight matchups on their own court.
Injuries & Team News
Forward Trey Lyles was ruled out of the game with the Suns due to illness so remains in doubt for this one. Sasha Vezenkov will remain sidelined for the road team due to an ankle issue. Guard Chris Duarte is questionable after missing the last four games. Sacramento should have their starters available, nonetheless.
Denver are dealing with a number of concerning issues ahead of the matchup. Vlatko Cancar has been ruled out after undergoing surgery, whilst guard Jamal Murray is unlikely to feature due to a leg injury. Forward Hunter Tyson will also be absent, whilst starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is doubtful as he continues to manage a hamstring issue.
Head-to-Head
The Kings very much enjoyed a dominating 29-point triumph over the Nuggets last week, and they have now beaten Denver in back-to-back meetings. They also recorded a 123-117 win back in December, meaning the season series now sits at 2-0 in favor of Sacramento.
The Nuggets have won their last three consecutive games at home to the Kings, though, but their most recent victory came last season. The road team hasn't won at Ball Arena since December 2020.
Betting Trends & Stats
Ranking just above average against the spread this season, Mike Brown’s team have a 27-25-1 record ATS. However, they have covered better on the road (57.1%), and are 8-6-0 ATS as road underdogs. The extra rest could favor Denver since the Kings are 6-8-0 ATS at a rest disadvantage.
They have covered in just 28.6% of games this season without a rest day as well. The home side have been very poor ATS the spread this season (22-30-2) and have the 26th-worst record across the entire NBA. They have covered in 50% of their home games, though, in which they have been listed as favorites for every game. The Nuggets have failed to make the most out of a rest advantage, however, and have an ATS record of just 4-7-1.
Key Players
Fox and Sabonis are in excellent shape entering tonight’s game after putting up 40 and 35 points respectively last night. The latter also recorded 18 rebounds and 12 assists, making 14 of his 22 field goal attempts as well. Fox is the team’s leading points scorer, averaging 26.7 points per game. Sabonis leads the league in rebounds (13.2).
Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic is the obvious star on the Nuggets roster, and he will be trying to carry his team to a win here in light of injuries to fellow key players Murray and Caldwell-Pope. Jokic leads the team in ppg (26.3), rebounds (12.2), assists (9.0) and blocks (0.9). However, they will miss Murray’s scoring ability as he is averaging 20.5 ppg this season.
Best Bet
This one is tough to call. Neither team heads into the game in the best of form, and the Nuggets will be hindered by their injury issues. The Kings will be feeling some fatigue after a hard-fought game against the Suns last night too.
Home advantage should play a factor, but Denver’s offense clearly struggled without a fully healthy Murray and Caldwell-Pope against the Bucks on Monday. We recommend taking the points tonight. The Nuggets have a good chance at winning, but expect the game to be close.
Sacramento Kings +4.5 (-105 with BetMGM)