Potential NBA Expansion on the Horizon
For the past two decades, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has maintained a steady lineup of 30 teams. However, with a renewed focus on expansion following the COVID-19 pandemic, the league is potentially poised for its next chapter of growth. While the timeline remains uncertain, the groundwork for expansion has been quietly developing in the background, with significant developments that could reshape the league's landscape.
When the Charlotte Bobcats joined the NBA in the 2004-05 season, it marked the most recent expansion within the league. The Bobcats, who played their inaugural game on November 4, 2004, paid an expansion fee of $300 million, signifying the financial commitment required for new franchises. In those days, such fees seemed monumental, but the current market trends suggest a much heftier price tag for prospective teams.
Today, franchise valuations have skyrocketed, with recent team sales valuing franchises at $3 billion or more. Mat Ishbia's purchase of the Phoenix Suns for a staggering $4 billion sets a new financial benchmark, indicating that any new team might follow suit with a similar or even higher valuation. If two teams were to join the league each at a price of $4.5 billion, current team owners would benefit substantially, receiving $300 million each from the expansion fees.
These fees, however, are not considered basketball-related income, and thus, players do not receive a share according to the collective bargaining agreement. Instead, the players' benefits come as the league expands its reach and increases job opportunities—two new teams mean 30 additional full-time roster spots and six more two-way spots, broadening the horizons for players across the sport.
A Look into Potential Markets
The widespread expectation is that Las Vegas and Seattle will likely be the next NBA expansion hubs. Seattle, once home to the Supersonics, is keen to revive its NBA presence, equipped with the Climate Pledge Arena. Once a mainstay in the league for over four decades, Seattle's storied basketball history is a compelling factor. As one of the nation’s largest markets, its potential return is seen by many as a rectification of a longstanding oversight.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas, with its state-of-the-art T-Mobile Arena, is being increasingly viewed as a primer location. The city has bolstered its reputation as a sports hub in recent years, showcasing a vibrant sports culture that could be an ideal match for the NBA's aspirations.
Beyond these frontrunners, other cities are also being considered. Anaheim, Kansas City, Louisville, and the international metropolis of Mexico City each present unique advantages. Mexico City's Arena, with a capacity to seat 22,300 fans, positions it as an intriguing international contender, particularly given the NBA's consistent engagement with the region, highlighted by the 32 games the league has held there since 1992.
In terms of league configuration, the addition of new teams could lead to a more balanced Eastern and Western Conference. This might entail moving existing Western Conference teams such as Memphis, Minnesota, and New Orleans to the Eastern Conference to accommodate the fresh arrivals.
The Mechanics of Expansion
The expansion process itself offers new teams a clean slate. Much like the 2004 expansion draft, today's new franchises would fill their rosters primarily through an expansion draft. During this process, existing teams protect a certain number of players, and expansion teams then select from the remaining unprotected players to build their rosters. In 2004, the Bobcats acquired future All-Star Gerald Wallace through this system, demonstrating the potential value of these selections.
Expansion teams enter their first NBA Draft with predetermined slots and also navigate free agency with a constrained salary cap in their initial two seasons. This initial structuring presents challenges, but also opportunities, for new teams to strategically develop a competitive roster.
As the NBA contemplates its future, the possibility of expansion is more than merely speculative—it represents a tangible shift toward embracing new markets and revitalizing the league’s reach. While the league "had other priorities" at times, the momentum toward expansion is building, even if "the future may not have arrived, but it's rapidly approaching." The culmination of labor agreements in 2023 and a subsequent media deal indicates a league primed for evolution. With fans and stakeholders alike brimming with anticipation, the once distant prospects of NBA expansion appear closer than ever.