Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team is an intricate art, reliant on a combination of strategy, knowledge, and, at times, calculated risk-taking. Key to this process is the foundation of consistent production from your best players, especially those selected beyond the very top of the draft.
The Risk and Reward of Drafting
One of the most significant strategic moves in fantasy is identifying players who, for various reasons, are undervalued by others. Joel Embiid, for example, presents a fascinating case. Embiid is projected to average more than 60 fantasy points per game, mirroring the formidable 61 FP/game from last season. However, his availability remains a critical concern. Despite his upside, Embiid has never played more than 68 games in a season and played only 39 games last season. Spending a first-round pick on him is a gamble; if he stays healthy, he could potentially carry a fantasy team to victory. But if he plays fewer than 52 games, it could spell disaster for many fantasy managers.
Durability Matters
Nikola Jokic offers a stark contrast to Embiid's inconsistency. Jokic's reliability is a cornerstone for any team, having played 79 games last season and never fewer than 69 games in his career. Such durability provides a safe return on investment for high draft picks, underscoring the importance of selecting players who can consistently stay on the court.
Similar considerations apply to the star duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both turned in remarkably durable performances last season - James playing 71 games, and Davis 76 games. However, their historical averages tell a different story: over the previous three seasons, James averaged 52 games and Davis just 44. With James turning 40 this season and Davis having played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year career, fantasy managers might rightly approach drafting them with caution, though high picks will still be necessary.
The Enigmas of Potential
Ja Morant is another player whose potential exceeds his current fantasy draft position. Despite missing 73 games last season due to suspension and injury, Morant has demonstrated the ability to deliver elite production, averaging 26.7 PPG, 7.5 APG, and 5.8 RPG over the past three seasons. Now 25 years old, Morant's ceiling is tantalizing, especially considering his higher playoff averages. Drafting him outside the first round could turn into a league-winning move if he fufills his potential and plays more than 70 games.
Then there's the consistent, yet aging Kevin Durant, set to enter his 18th NBA season. After a period of relentless injuries, Durant played an impressive 75 games last season. Still, at 36 years old, durability remains a question mark. This historical data plus his current form will be essential considerations for fantasy enthusiasts.
High Risk, High Reward
Kyrie Irving and Zion Williamson exemplify the high risk, high reward dilemma. Irving, with incredible stats of 26.7 PPG, 49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, and 91.2 FT% over his last five seasons, has been consistently hampered by injuries and off-the-court issues, averaging just 44.2 games per season. His 22nd ranking in fantasy points per game last season versus his 47th rank in total fantasy points highlights the impact of his limited availability.
Williamson, too, tantalizes with potential. Still only 24, he averaged 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, but injuries allowed him to play just 90 of 236 possible regular season games in that span. Despite a career-high 70 games played last season, his scoring and rebound numbers dipped, although he did show flashes of brilliance with a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch late in the season.
Kawhi Leonard's story is similar. Known for durability concerns, Leonard managed to play 68 games last season, finishing with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, late-season knee issues caused him to miss 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games, including playoffs, reinforcing his risk profile even with improved last season performance.
Summary
In essence, the decisions surrounding fantasy basketball drafts are laden with complex trade-offs between a player's potential and their ability to remain healthy. Exceptional production from later-round picks and managing the inherent risks associated with top-tier talents are crucial to building a winning fantasy squad. Championships often hinge on these calculated gambles, making the draft an intricate dance of intuition, strategy, and a bit of luck.