WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury will put his belt on the line when he faces Deontay Wilder for a trilogy fight in Nevada on Saturday. We have explored the background to the fight, how it might unfold, and the exciting betting options that are available to boxing fans.
The Long Road to Paradise
The first fight between Fury and Wilder ended in a controversial draw when they locked horns at the Staples Center in Los Angeles on December 1, 2018. Wilder knocked Fury down with a devastating right-left combination in the 12th round, but the Gypsy King climbed back to hit feet and finished the fight.
Fury landed many more punches over the course of the bout, and many observers felt he had done enough to secure victory. However, it ended in a split decision draw, with the scorecards at 115–111 for Wilder, 114–112 for Fury, and 113–113.
The rematch was held at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Paradise, Nevada, in February 2020. Fury was a lot more aggressive in the second fight, holding his ground in the center of the ring, dominating with his jab and landing powerful shots on a regular basis. He floored Wilder in the third and fifth rounds, and the Bronze Bomber’s team threw in the towel in the seventh round after a punishing blitzkrieg of shots left him bleeding all over the canvas.
Fury was then keen to fight Anthony Joshua in a unification bout, but those plans had to be abandoned after Wilder invoked a rematch clause. Joshua has since lost his belts to Oleksandr Usyk, blowing the heavyweight division wide open, while Fury is heading into a trilogy fight with Wilder. It was initially due to take place in July, but it had to be postponed after Fury tested positive for Covid-19. It will now be held on Saturday, October 9, at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
Key Stats
Fury remains unbeaten in his career. He beat Wladimir Klitschko in 2015 to win the WBA (Super), IBF, WBO and IBO heavyweight titles, but vacated them during a hiatus from the sport, in which he grappled with mental health issues.
He returned after almost three years out to beat Sefer Seferi and Fancesco Pianeta in 2018, before the draw with Wilder. Subsequent wins against Tom Schwarz and Otto Walin preceded the rematch with the Bronze Bomber, and that win last year took his record to 30-0-1.
Wilder was also unbeaten heading into last year’s rematch. The Alabama native was 40-0 when he went into his first fight with Fury. He subsequently knocked out Dominic Breazeale and Luis Ortiz, but the loss against Fury left him 42-1-1. Forty-one of his 42 wins have come via knockout, and he has only ever gone the distance twice. Twenty-one of Fury’s wins were by knockout.
Fury has a two-inch height and reach advantage over Wilder. The Bronze Bomber is also a relatively slender heavyweight. He was 44 pounds lighter than Fury for their first fight. Wilder bulked up to 231 lbs for the rematch, but Fury also gained weight and stepped onto the scales at 273 lbs.
Betting Guide
Fury is the heavy favorite to win this trilogy fight. BetMGM has a market leading -275 on the Gypsy King, meaning you would need to wager $275 to earn a $100 profit. FanDuel will only go to -350 for Fury, and it is offering a market best price of +250 on Wilder. That means you will earn $250 in profit for every $100 you wager on the Bronze Bomber if he is successful.
It is easy to see why Fury is the clear favorite. He landed 82 punches when they fought last year, compared to just 34 for Wilder. Every judge had him comfortably ahead when Wilder’s team threw in the towel, and Wilder looked a shadow of his former self.
Fury delivered one of the most destructive heavyweight performances of all time. It was a boxing masterclass. Wilder’s lack of technical ability was brutally exposed, as his stance was poor and he was outboxed from the first bell. He is the world’s most powerful puncher, but he could not find an opening, as Fury was aggressive and dominant throughout.
Projections for the Fight
It is hard to see how Wilder can turn things around in this trilogy fight. Fury proved his superior boxing ability in both previous showdowns, so Wilder will once again be reliant on finding that knockout blow. He came close to stopping Fury in the first match, but Fury was resilient enough to climb back onto his feet and see out the fight.
If Fury emulates the performance he gave last year, Wilder stands very little chance of success. The Gypsy King promised to knock Wilder out, but many commentators said it was simply mind games, and that he would actually attempt to grind out a points win. Yet Fury was true to his word. He has pledged to knock Wilder out once more this weekend, and you can find -106 at PointsBet and -110 at various other sportsbooks on Fury winning by KO, TKO or disqualification. That looks like a great bet.
Most boxing fans would agree that Wilder stands no chance of winning on points. His only chance is to knock Fury’s lights out. After all, he still boasts the most frightening power since an early iteration of Mike Tyson
If you think Fury will win, but you are worried about Wilder’s punching power, you can back Fury and hedge your bets with a small stake on Wilder to win by KO, TKO or disqualification.
You could then place a large bet on Wilder to win at -275 with BetMGM, and a much smaller stake on Wilder to win via knockout at +310 with FanDuel.
The sportsbooks believe the fight is unlikely to go the distance. FanDuel has -320 on “no” and +215 on “yes”. It is also offering +270 on Fury to win in Rounds 1-6 and +270 on him to win in Rounds 7-12. If you think Wilder will win, he is priced at +550 to do so in Rounds 1-6 and +900 in Rounds 7-12.
