The NFL’s AFC divisional round will conclude on Sunday evening, with the Buffalo Bills hosting the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, in New York.
The game will start at 6:30 PM EST in Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park. It will be broadcast on CBS, with streaming available on DAZN for Canadian viewers.
Both teams advanced to this stage by eliminating AFC wild-card squads. The Chiefs secured a 26-7 victory over the Miami Dolphins last week. Meanwhile, the Bills, led by an impressive performance from quarterback Josh Allen, sent the Pittsburgh Steelers packing with a 31-17 win on Tuesday.
Having faced recent postseason setbacks against the Chiefs, the Bills are determined to turn the tide. They will be relying on their tight ends to excel as the Chiefs’ defense effectively stifles opposing receivers. However, the Bills’ secondary contends with injuries, potentially opening doors for the Chiefs’ receivers to make significant contributions.
Historically, the Chiefs have not visited Buffalo since 2020. The winner of this matchup will host the AFC Championship or travel based on the outcome of the Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens game, commencing on the same day at the M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland.
Allen-Cook combo
According to the latest betting odds from BetMGM, the Bills are favored with a -2.5 spread and a moneyline of -145. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a +2.5 spread and a +120 moneyline. The total over/under is set at 45.5 points.
Key matchups to watch include Buffalo’s tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, who need to shine against the Chiefs’ strong defense. Knox played 42 of the Bills’ 64 offensive snaps, while rookie Kincaid was on the field for 33 snaps. Kincaid, particularly, has seen an expanded profile as the Bills’ clear while Knox is sidelined due to a wrist injury.
In terms of trends, the Chiefs performed well on the road in 2023, while the Bills were strong at home. The Chiefs were 5-3 against the spread and 6-2 overall on the road this season, especially with a recent victory against the Dolphins. However, the Bills were 6-1 straight up in their last seven home games.
Buffalo’s strategy for success over the Chiefs will involve running the ball efficiently. Many believe they should use running back James Cook alongside Allen to move the chains.
In the past, Buffalo heavily relied on Allen’s rushing prowess for ground success. Throughout his career, the second-team All-Pro QB has had 3,611 rushing yards and 72 rushing yards this season.
In turn, this created a scenario where the Bills struggled to run the ball effectively when it truly mattered. However, this season, Cook emerged as a key player by significantly impacting the ground and the receiving game. He has a total of 1,629 rushing yards in his career. This season witnessed up to 326 rushing yards on his account.
Chiefs should maintain tight game
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s supplementary receivers, particularly Rashee Rice, will be crucial given Buffalo’s mangled secondary. The Chiefs have an advantage with Buffalo’s key defensive cornerbacks Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam dealing with injuries.
To secure victory against Buffalo, Kansas City must focus on maintaining a tight game and capitalizing on the Bills’ potential mistakes. The Chiefs were narrowly defeated 20-17 in Week 14, with a mental error being the only factor preventing their triumph.
Despite spending ten fewer minutes on offense and committing three additional penalties, Kansas City was on the verge of victory.
Allen, often the catalyst for Buffalo’s success, can also be a source of setbacks due to his aggressive playing style. The Chiefs aim to exploit this tendency, anticipating that the Bills might hinder themselves in critical moments.
