Assembling the pieces of an NFL franchise’s success or failure is a complex and often scrutinized endeavor. For John Elway, the legendary quarterback turned general manager for the Denver Broncos, the weight of his tenure includes a significant cliff. In a candid reflection, Elway pinpointed his biggest regret during his leadership: passing on quarterback Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL draft.
A Decision That Haunts
During the 2018 NFL draft, John Elway and the Denver Broncos had the opportunity to draft Josh Allen, a promising quarterback out of Wyoming. Instead, Elway opted for Bradley Chubb, a pass rusher from NC State, with the fifth overall pick. This decision was not without its rationale. At the time, Elway had high hopes vested in Case Keenum, who was coming off a breakout season with the Minnesota Vikings. Additionally, Elway had previously drafted Paxton Lynch in 2016, although that had already proven to be a disappointing choice as Lynch was beaten out by Trevor Siemian and started only four games before his eventual release in 2018.
Elway’s reflection on his decision is tinged with regret. "Last year I played [golf] with him and I'm wondering, 'How long is it going to take him to realize that I passed on him and took Bradley Chubb instead?' And it took him two and a half holes," Elway recalled. "And I loved him. But it just didn't work out. He was my type. That was probably my biggest mistake of my GM days, was not taking Josh."
The Fallout
Bradley Chubb, the player chosen over Allen, struggled with health issues in Denver and was eventually traded to the Miami Dolphins. On the other hand, Allen has flourished with the Buffalo Bills, establishing himself as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. The disparity in their career trajectories starkly highlights the consequences of Elway’s decision.
The Broncos’ quarterback turmoil during Elway’s tenure is well-documented. Since Peyton Manning’s retirement following their Super Bowl win in the 2015 season, Denver has cycled through 13 different starting quarterbacks. The carousel continues, with the number expected to rise unless Jarrett Stidham manages to fend off Bo Nix and Zach Wilson for the starting job this season. This unsettling instability at the quarterback position has been a significant reason for the Broncos not making the playoffs since their triumphant Super Bowl run.
Elway’s Rocky Tenure
John Elway rejoined the Broncos in 2011 as the director of player personnel and was named executive vice president of football operations in 2012. His early years in the front office were marked by notable successes, including the significant acquisition of Peyton Manning in 2012. Manning’s tenure saw the Broncos reach two Super Bowls, winning one, thus cementing Elway’s initial legacy as an astute front-office operator.
However, the later years tell a different story. Elway’s record as general manager was an impressive 64-26 in his first five seasons, but then spiraled to 32-48 in his final five. The lack of a reliable quarterback post-Manning significantly hampered the team's performance, ultimately leading to Elway stepping away from his role following the 2020 season.
A Retrospective Lesson
The candidness with which Elway admits to his mistake offers a rare glimpse into the high-stakes decisions and miscalculations that define NFL front offices. Draft choices, particularly at the quarterback position, can set the course of a franchise for years. The Broncos’ decision to pass on Josh Allen, now acknowledged by Elway as his “biggest mistake,” serves as an enduring lesson in the volatility and unforgiving nature of NFL management.
For both the Broncos and their fans, moving forward involves reconciling with the choices of the past, however regrettable they might be. Elway’s thoughtful reflection underscores the reality that even the most celebrated figures in the sport can err, illustrating the perennial complexities of building a successful team in the NFL.