The Los Angeles Rams are the 4.5-point favorites to beat the Cincinnati Bengals at Super Bowl 56 on Sunday. Can they cover that spread?
Game Details
Date: Sunday, February 13, at 6.30pm EST
TV: NBC
Location: SoFi Stadium
Weather: Warm, mostly sunny, with 9mph wind
Rams Enjoy Home Advantage
The Rams will become only the second team in history to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. Last year, the Buccaneers held home advantage when the Super Bowl was played in Tampa Bay, and they swept aside the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Rams will now bid to follow suit. They were not always the most convincing team in the regular season, but they managed to finish top of an extremely competitive NFC West Division with a 12-5 record. Their best performances came on the road, where they went 7-2 straight-up, and they were 5-3 at SoFi Stadium.
Yet the Rams tore the Arizona Cardinals apart in the Wild Card Round in Inglewood. They then went on the road to face the Bucs in Tampa. They were the clear underdogs, but they battled to a 30-27 win.
Their reward was a home game against another divisional rival, the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams had lost to the 49ers twice in the regular season, but they finally overcame that hoodoo with a 20-17 win. They have now won eight of their last nine games, and the only defeat in that stretch came in overtime against the Niners.
Bengals Revel in Underdog Status
Cincinnati began the season as a +7500 outsider to win the Super Bowl. Yet the Bengals made a mockery of those odds by finishing top of the AFC North with a 10-7 record and then beating the Raiders, the Titans and the Chiefs in the playoffs.
They were expected to beat the Raiders, but they were huge underdogs against the Titans and the Chiefs. After all, Tennessee was the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while Kansas City had won the conference championship for the past three years.
Yet Cincinnati reveled in its status as the underdog. Second-year QB Joe Burrow has been sensational, as has Ja’Marr Chase, while a defense led by Trey Hendrickson was very impressive against the Titans and in the second half of the conference championship game against the Chiefs.
The Bengals’ defense will have to be at its very best to contain a star-studded Rams offense led by Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. Yet the best player on the field may well be Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who will aim to make life very difficult for Joe Burrow and co.
Super Bowl Trends
- Super Bowl favorites are 35-20 straight up over the last 55 years. However, seven underdogs have prevailed in the past 10 years, and underdogs are 14-7 in the 21st century. Favorites are 28-25-2 ATS in Super Bowl history.
- The NFC is currently 28-27 ahead against the AFC since the Super Bowl began.
- The team with the weakest regular season record has won the Super Bowl in 13 of the last 15 years.
- The Bengals are 13-7 ATS this season, and they are 3-0 ATS in the playoffs.
- The Rams are 5-5 ATS at home this season, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. In total, the Rams are 10-10 ATS.
- Over/under is 10-9-1 for the Rams this season, and 5-5 at SoFi Stadium. Over/under was 8-8-1 for the Bengals during the regular season, and 2-6 on the road. It is 2-1 in the playoffs. Over/under is 27-27-1 in Super Bowl history.
- The Rams and the Bengals both scored an average of 27.1 points per game during the regular season. The Rams allowed 21.9 points per game, and the Bengals allowed 22.1 points, leaving them 15th and 17th in the league respectively.
Betting Odds
The Rams opened as the 3.5-point favorites for this game. However, the line has now moved to 4.5 points after the Rams proved to be a popular pick. Now that the line has moved, DraftKings reports that 56% of the handle has gone on Cincy to cover. It added that 55% of bets have been placed on over in the total points market, with the line at 48.5 points, while 64% of moneyline bets have gone on the Bengals.
FanDuel is offering a market leading +100 on the Rams -4.5, while Caesars Sportsbook has -110 on the Rams -4. If you like the Bengals, DraftKings has -105 on the Bengals +4, and BetMGM and PointsBet have -110 on the Bengals -4.5. Caesars has a best price of -190 on the Rams to win on the moneyline, while DraftKings has +170 on the Bengals.
Prop Bets
You will find thousands of prop bets on Super Bowl 56. Caesars Sportsbook is the best destination for anyone seeking props, as it has more than 2,000 for you to choose from. However, it also pays to shop around for your odds, so check out the likes of FanDuel, DraftKings and BetRivers too.
Best Super Bowl Promotions
- FanDuel will allow new customers to bet $5 on either team to win the game at boosted odds of 56/1, which is +5600. If successful, you will get $280 in cash.
- DraftKings will let you bet $5 at +5600 too, but the winnings are paid in site credit as opposed to cash.
- Caesars Sportsbook will give $300 in free bet credit to anyone that bets $20 on Super Bowl 56. The funds will be divided into six free bets, each worth $50, issued within 72 hours of the Super Bowl.
Picks
Ja’Marr Chase has been magnificent for the Bengals in recent weeks, so a price of -110 on him to go over 80.5 receiving yards at DraftKings looks very appealing, as does the +100 on him to score a TD.
Kupp is the Rams’ main dangerman, but his prop totals are high. A bet on Beckham Jr. to manage over 5.5 receptions at +120 looks appealing. He caught six passes against the Bucs and then nine passes for 113 yards against the 49ers, so he is becoming more integral to this offense, and he should flourish against a Cincinnati pass rush defense that has underwhelmed this season.
