The NFL playoffs continue on Monday night and the final Wild Card matchup takes place from Raymond James Stadium as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host current NFC champions the Philadelphia Eagles. The game gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET and, despite finishing the regular season with just one win in six, Philly head into the clash as three-point favorites.
The Bucs secured their third successive AFC South title with a 9-0 victory over the Carolina Panthers during Week 18 of the regular season. That has given them home-field advantage here as Philly makes the trip to Florida for the primetime slot.
We will be providing you with a bet for today’s final Wild Card game, breaking down the analysis behind our pick. BetMGM have the Bucs as three-point underdogs heading into the game (-120). Let’s find a winner to conclude the first week of playoff football.
Injuries
We’ll kick off our examination by taking a look at the key injuries across both rosters. The main question for the Buccaneers is whether quarterback Baker Mayfield will be healthy enough to play. The former Cleveland Browns signal caller has been listed as questionable all week due to issues with his ankle/ribs, but the expectation is that he will be ready to start. That is a huge plus for Tampa.
However, the Eagles have been dealt a huge blow with star receiver A.J. Brown officially ruled out for the game with a knee injury. Brown has been the star man in the Eagles’ offense and has a total of 106 receptions, 1,456 receiving yards and seven touchdowns this season.
Safety Sydney Brown is out for the match as well, whilst fellow safety Reed Blankenship remains questionable. However, Jalen Hurts will be under center, despite nursing a finger injury for all of last week.
Down the Stretch
Tampa Bay ended the regular season in much better form than their opponents and managed to win five of their final six games. However, their performances in their final two games against the New Orleans Saints and the Panthers were incredibly underwhelming. Still, they managed to secure the No. 4 seed to seal a home playoff matchup here.
Momentum is incredibly important heading into the playoffs and that’s exactly what the Eagles are missing. Philly started the season 10-1 through Week 12, but were victorious in just one of their final six games to end with a record of 11-6. That meant they dropped down to the No. 5 seed. Brown was present for all 17 regular season games so his absence is set to make a massive impact.
Head-to-Head
The two teams met earlier on in the season at Raymond James Stadium and Philly ran out comfortable 25-11 winners. If you think the Eagles will deliver a similar display in this one, you can back them as three-point favorites with BetRivers at +100. Brown went off in that matchup too, racking up 131 receiving yards from nine catches.
Nevertheless, their most recent playoff clash saw the Bucs win 31-15 during the 2021 season as Tom Brady threw two touchdowns to help Tampa advance into the Divisional Round. Without Brady on the roster this time around, Mayfield will hope to lead the charge for the Bucs. Mayfield has had a bounce-back year for the Buccaneers and has thrown for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and ten interceptions.
Key Matchups
Eagles rookie Jalen Carter has been one of the best interior defenders across the entire league for the 2023 season and he could cause the Bucs’ offensive line huge problems on Monday night. Tampa’s o-line has struggled throughout the campaign and center Robert Hainsey could be in for a difficult game. Veteran defensive tackle Fletcher Cox has also had a solid year for Philly.
Mike Evans has been one of the most reliable and consistent receivers in the NFL now since he entered the league in 2014. He has had over 1000 receiving yards in every single season for the Bucs and has had his best year since 2018 in 2023, recording 1,255 receiving yards and scoring 13 touchdowns.
Safety Blankenship has had a good year for the Eagles, but he is questionable to play, meaning Evans could be in for a monster game. BetMGM has Evans to have over 66.5 receiving yards at -115. Philly have allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the league this season and the second-most passing touchdowns.
Against the Spread Stats
Tampa Bay has been one of the best ATS teams this season and they have the second best record in the NFL (11-6), covering 64.7% of the time. However, at home, they are 3-5 ATS and are 1-2 as the home underdog. The Bucs have covered best in road games, boasting a record of 8-1 ATS.
The Eagles have struggled to cover this season and have an ATS record of 7-8-2. They are 4-4-1 as the road team and have a record of 3-3-1 ATS as away favorites. Philly has been covering just 50% of the time as the general favorite. They have been poor at responding after a loss and have an ATS record of just 1-4 following a defeat.
Best Bet
The loss of Brown will play a huge role in how this game will play out. It’s hard to see how the Eagles offense will operate without him. QB Hurts has been banged up all season too and his latest finger injury on his throwing hand doesn’t bode well.
Mayfield is a warrior and will likely step up in this playoff game for the Bucs. With home support, he will be expected to link up well with Evans and help take Tampa Bay into the Divisional Round. The game should be close either way and even if Philly are able to win, a three-point handicap for the Bucs looks enticing.
Buccaneers +3 (-120) with BetMGM
