Millions of people across the world will be tuning in for Super Bowl LVIII this Sunday as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs head to Sin City for what should be an exhilarating dogfight for the Lombardi Trophy.
It will be a strategic battle between Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid once more as the two head coaches face off in a repeat of Super Bowl LIV. The former will be desperate for redemption, whilst the latter is searching for successive Super Bowl triumphs. This time, they meet at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11, 2024.
The 49ers have been the betting favorites throughout the build-up to the NFL’s championship game, and that hasn’t changed as we edge closer to the tantalizing encounter. BetMGM have San Francisco as 2-point favorites (-110) with the game total set at 47.5.
We’ve got our full game analysis available for you below before we share with you our best bet for Super Bowl LVIII. Let’s get into it and find a winner!
Injuries
Sports bettors will know just how significant it is to check the injury report before making their picks. The Niners are expecting to head into the game without too many concerns. Tight end George Kittle and defensive tackle Arik Armstead have been limited in practice this week, but they will both likely suit up come Sunday. Oren Burks and Ambry Thomas have also been limited this week.
However, the Chiefs are dealing with a couple of issues. Guard Joe Thuney will likely miss out as he has failed to feature in practice all week due to a pectoral injury. Nick Allegretti is expected to fill in. Jerick McKinnon, Rashee Rice and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were all limited on Thursday. Expect the latter two to feature at least.
Road To Super Bowl
After securing the NFC’s No.1 seed with a 12-5 record, the Niners were able to advance straight into the Divisional Round of the playoffs. They met the Green Bay Packers in their first matchup of the postseason, and Green Bay put in an admirable display. However, linebacker Dre Greenlaw made two huge interceptions to help the 49ers seal a 24-21 win.
Next up for San Francisco was NFC North champions the Detroit Lions. Like the Packers game, it was a tough battle for the Niners. However, they managed to come from behind to win 34-31 and wrap up the NFC title. Guys such as Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey played crucial roles.
Despite winning the AFC West, the Chiefs only managed to lock up the No. 3 seed, meaning they had to play against the Miami Dolphins during Wild Card Weekend. They comfortably got past them at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 26-7.
The Divisional game saw star quarterback Patrick Mahomes head out on the road for the first time ever in the playoffs. He produced as Kansas City inflicted yet another postseason defeat on the Buffalo Bills (27-24). Mahomes then extended his record on the road in the playoffs to 2-0 with a 17-10 victory over the one-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game.
Head-to-Head
49ers head coach Shanahan has his chance to exact revenge in 2024 after his team lost 31-20 against the Chiefs at Super Bowl 54. San Francisco threw away a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, with Mahomes throwing two TDs to clinch his maiden Super Bowl and first-ever Super Bowl MVP award. Chiefs coach Reid would also win his first Super Bowl that year as head coach.
This one just seems to mean more for Shanahan. He lost in back-to-back Conference Championship games in 2021 and 2022, and now is the perfect time for redemption following the loss in Miami four years ago. The offensive guru suffered heartbreak at Super Bowl LI, too, failing to capitalize on a mammoth 25-point lead against the New England Patriots as Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator.
Key Matchups
The run defense was one of San Francisco’s strong points during the regular season. They allowed just 89.7 yards per game (YPG) which was the 3rd-best in the NFL, but it has been an issue during the playoffs. The Niners have allowed 159.0 rushing YPG in their two postseason games against the Packers and the Lions.
That could mean running back Isiah Pacheco has a big role for the game, and he has been excellent in the playoffs so far, rushing for 254 yards and 3 scores. Players such as three-time All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner will be aiming to limit the Chiefs RB from making extended plays. The Niner's defense will also face an upward battle to contain tight end Travis Kelce who has been elite through the postseason in 2024.
There are pivotal matchups across the field ahead of Super Bowl LVIII. However, the Chiefs LBs will have a tough task up against NFL Offensive Player of the Year McCaffrey. Willie Gay, Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal have all been good against the run this season, but have a tough task at limiting CMC’s pass-catching ability too.
Finally, we can’t ignore the coaching confrontation between Shanahan and Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs’ defense has been excellent all season, and limited an impressive Ravens offense and MVP Lamar Jackson to just one touchdown in the Conference Championship matchup. Spagnuolo got the better of the 49ers coach at Super Bowl 2020.
Against the Spread Stats
Neither franchise performed that well ATS during the regular season. San Francisco had a record of 9-8-0, whilst the Chiefs were 9-7-1. However, we have seen some clear ATS trends throughout the playoffs.
Kansas City are 3-0 ATS during the postseason, and they even started as the underdogs for both their matchups against the Bills and the Ravens. In contrast, the 49ers are 0-2 ATS, failing to cover as 10-point and 7-point favorites against the Packers and Lions respectively.
Best Bet
We’re in for a real treat at Super Bowl LVIII, and it will be a test of composure, tactical acumen and grit on Sunday. Two of the NFL’s elite teams will square off in what is set to be a swashbuckling contest.
It’s incredibly hard to call this game. You can make a multitude of legitimate arguments for both sides. However, when everything’s said and done, we’re backing the Chiefs to come out on top. They have defied the odds every step of the way through the playoffs thus far, and the Mahomes-Reid combo is emulating the Brady-Bellichick era.
Kansas City Chiefs +2 (-110 with BetMGM)
