The NFL season marches on into Week 12, and as the playoff picture begins to crystallize, history suggests that it’s not just the frontrunners who have a shot at postseason glory. The expansion of the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020 has opened doors for underdogs to join the hunt, and some teams currently hovering at or below .500 are anything but out of the race.
The .500 Phenomenon
Since the playoffs were expanded, a remarkable trend has emerged: teams with seemingly modest records can still sneak into the postseason. From the Commanders edging in during the inaugural year of the expanded playoffs in 2020, to the Raiders, Eagles, and 49ers making their late surges in 2021, hope springs eternal. 2022 followed suit with the Jaguars, Chargers, and Buccaneers joining the playoff cadre despite early-season struggles.
This isn’t just a historical anomaly. The 2023 season reinforces the point, as the Rams, Buccaneers, and Packers have defied expectations to clinch playoff spots despite their midseason standings.
AFC: Calculating the Odds
Eyes turn now to the current playoff picture. In the AFC, the scramble for that all-important post-season position sees fascinating probability estimations. The Colts have a solid 21.5% chance, leading the group of those fighting from the bottom half. The Bengals and Dolphins trail closely with 14.5% and 13.4% chances respectively, while the Jaguars, despite a mere 0.6% chance, have shown that even the longest odds can be overcome. Interestingly, the Raiders, though technically not eliminated, are pegged with a 0.0% chance, reflecting the tough road ahead.
NFC: Battling from Within
Across the conference divide, the NFC sees its contenders also vying amidst varying degrees of likelihood. The 49ers, with a foothold at 32.1%, lead the playoff hopefuls. The Buccaneers and Seahawks, both eager to capitalize on their 28.2% and 26.8% chances respectively, aim to assert their postseason claims. Rams fans, holding their breath with a 10.2% probability, understand well the late-season theatrics required to change their fortunes. Despite a seemingly insurmountable climb, even the Cowboys and Giants harbor slivers of possibilities, albeit under 1%.
Wild-Card Warfare
As the dust settles around potential playoff contenders, attention builds around the projected wild-card matchups. In the AFC, fans can anticipate clashes like the Broncos visiting the Bills. While simultaneous intrigue centers on the Ravens' showdown with the Steelers and the Chargers facing off against the Texans. Meanwhile, the Chiefs enjoy a coveted bye week as the conference’s prime performer.
The NFC doesn’t lag in excitement, with projected fixtures such as the Packers traveling to face the Eagles and the Commanders aiming to outmaneuver the Cardinals. The Vikings are set to test the mettle of the Falcons, while the Lions rest easy on their bye, contemplating the gauntlet ahead.
A Season of Unpredictability
As Week 12 unfolds, the NFL remains a thrilling tapestry of unexpected narratives and relentless competition. Teams that might have once thought their seasons were lost continue to fight tooth and nail for a chance at playoff destiny. The expanded playoffs have ensured that there’s always room for a Cinderella story, with history reminding us that records heading into Week 12 are just numbers waiting to be rewritten.