The San Francisco 49ers could receive an unexpected advantage in Super Bowl 58 if a surprising trend continues, potentially making their rookie kicker Jake Moody a climactic X factor in the game.
For Sunday’s game, the 49ers will be relying on Moody, who held the 20th spot in kicking accuracy. Moody managed an 84 percent success rate in 2023 but has faltered recently, missing at least one field goal in the past three games, including both playoff matchups.
Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs will have Harrison Butker as their kicker. Butker is ranked fourth in accuracy in the NFL for the 2023 season and he enters the game with a career-high 94.3 percent success rate on field goals.
Despite the initial skepticism surrounding the decision to start a rookie kicker in the Super Bowl, historical data suggests otherwise. Moody’s upcoming debut on Sunday will mark the 12th occasion a rookie or first-year player has taken on kicking duties in the championship game.
Moody’s unwavering confidence
Despite an anticipated audience of over 100 million viewers on Sunday, Moody remains unfazed by the prospect of heightened pressure.
Having experienced high-stakes moments previously, such as the 2023 College Football Playoff, where he went 3-for-3, including a 59-yarder in a close game against TCU, the former Michigan kicker feels prepared.
“I’ve been in a bunch of big games, whether it’s been in college or the NFL now, going through the playoffs. I feel like I’m prepared for it,” Moody said via NFL.com. “It’s the same kick; Just trust the routine, trust the process. It’s no different than any other kick.”
“It’s no different than in college,” Moody added. “The posts are the same size. Ball is the same. Holder and snapper are just as good, if not better in the NFL.”
Moody will kick in the same stadium where he attempted his first NFL field goals during the 49ers’ preseason game at Allegiant Stadium in August. Despite missing both attempts from 40 and 58 yards, Moody remains courageous for the decisive game on Sunday.
Moody’s statistics closely mirror those of the last two rookies to kick in a Super Bowl. They were the Cincinnati Bengals’ Evan McPherson and Philadelphia Eagles’ Jake Elliott.
Rookie successes in Super Bowl
Contrary to expectations of succumbing to pressure, rookie kickers have displayed remarkable composure during the Super Bowl. Previous instances reveal that the 11 rookies who have kicked in the Super Bowl boast an impressive 88.2 percent success rate, converting 15 out of 17 field goal attempts.
In contrast, non-rookies have collectively managed a 73.2 percent success rate, hitting 137 out of 187 field goals.
In 2021, McPherson achieved an 84.8 percent success rate on field goals, just 0.8 percent higher than Moody. However, he delivered a flawless performance in the Super Bowl, going 2-for-2 with successful kicks from 29 and 38 yards.
Similarly, Elliott managed only an 83.9 percent success rate during his rookie season, yet he, too, was flawless in the Super Bowl. Elliott converted kicks from 25, 42 and 46 yards and his stellar Super Bowl performances have even led him to tie the career record for most field goals (5) without a miss in the championship game.
Among the ten rookie kickers who attempted at least one field goal, eight demonstrated greater accuracy in the Super Bowl than they did during the regular season.
In the 2011-12 season, Baltimore Ravens rookie kicker Justin Tucker had a regular-season accuracy percentage of 90.9 percent. However, it shot up to 100 percent in the Super Bowl XLVII, with the Ravens winning 34-31 over the 49ers.
Interestingly, the last time a rookie kicker missed a field goal in the Super Bowl was nearly 30 years ago, although the miss was from the 49ers.