Less than three years ago, Russell Wilson was thought of as the cornerstone of the franchise with which he clinched a Super Bowl victory. Today, the narrative has evolved remarkably as Wilson finds himself at the helm of the Pittsburgh Steelers, playing on a one-year, $1.21 million veteran minimum contract. Interestingly, while he calls the Steel City home, his former team, the Denver Broncos, are still picking up a hefty $39 million tab, thanks to the intricacies of NFL contracts.
Wilson's journey has been nothing short of a roller-coaster ride. After signing a significant four-year, $140 million extension with the Seahawks in 2019, the quarterback was surprisingly traded to the Broncos just three years later. Denver, seemingly eager to secure their quarterback future, shelled out a whopping five-year, $242.6 million deal, of which a substantial portion was guaranteed. Yet, in an unprecedented turn of events, the Broncos benched him, absorbing the largest dead cap hit in NFL history.
The Steelers are now at a crossroads. As the season progresses, Wilson has led them to a 4-1 record as a starter and thrown seven touchdowns to a mere two interceptions. Yet, shadowing Wilson's presence is Justin Fields, another talent eyeing free agency come March, as he concludes his rookie contract.
Uncertain Future
Will the Steelers choose Wilson, the 36-year-old veteran with a storied past, or the younger Fields in their pursuit of consistency in the quarterback position? The franchise's history indicates a reluctance to negotiate during the season, leaving fans eagerly awaiting an off-season filled with critical decisions.
Steelers' managing staff have notable decisions ahead, influenced by Wilson's recent performance and potential impact. An executive remarked, "Think a lot depends on how he finishes up the season and how Pittsburgh views him. If they make some noise in the playoffs, Geno [Smith] at [$25 million]. If he fizzles down the stretch, he's a bridge/backup at [$10 million-$12 million]."
While some executives believe that Wilson could command a salary north of what top backup quarterbacks receive, the debate centers around what constitutes fair value. Some reckon Wilson could garner a deal in the “[$25 million-$30 million] range," with ample deliberation on what his reputation might mean for contract nuances.
Quarterback Market Dynamics
The broader quarterback market hints at upcoming shifts, with a quarter of the league potentially altering their Week 1 starters next season. Teams like the Giants, Jets, Panthers, Raiders, Titans, Browns, and Steelers face uncertainties, paving the way for major player movement. Notably, quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, and Mac Jones are poised to become free agents in 2025, adding a layer of intrigue to negotiations.
One executive provided insight into Wilson's market value, suggesting, "[$28 million-$32 million]. They'll add a fluff year on the back end to make it look better." Adding to this, another executive asserted, "Probably in [$30 million-$35 million] range. A Baker Mayfield-like deal. They may win their division with him as the starter and could get out of the wild-card round."
Reputation and Performance
Behind the numbers, Wilson's personality and past dealings have been part of the discourse. A team executive candidly put it, "I think he has a reputation for being very high maintenance and a lot to deal with." This perception might temper the enthusiasm of teams who could otherwise be willing to splurge north of $30 million annually for his services.
The Steelers also have to consider that the franchise hasn’t had a quarterback accounting for more than 10% of their salary cap since Ben Roethlisberger’s last stint in 2021. This could both constrain their financial flexibility and influence their eventual decision-making.
As the regular season unfolds, Pittsburgh fans are left to speculate the outcome of Wilson's tenure under their banner. For the Steelers' management and Russell Wilson himself, the upcoming games serve as pivotal chapters in deciding the future, where performance is paramount. Whatever decision Pittsburgh makes in the offseason, it will shape their quarterback landscape for years to come.